I've decided to write a brief preview of the series but at the same time, to the best of my ability, try to do so in the context of this series only, ignoring to as great an extent as possible, the infinitely greater and more significant context that is the Ashes. This preview is just that- a preview. It is not an analysis of what I think will happen; It aims only to raise the big issues that I think will decide the series.
1) Virender Sehwag v the Australian bowlers-
Sehwag has been in outrageous form the past few years and he has built himself a reputation as not only being the best test batsmen in the world, but more specifically as a man who can score extremely large scores extremely quickly. His test strike rate of 81.56 at an average of almost 55 makes him an instant nightmare if he gets in. Further, Sehwag has 21 test hundreds to go with his 22 test fifties. Therefore, once Sehwag hits a half century there is a 50/50 chance he'll go on to 100, and chances are those second fifty runs take him long to get. For the sake of Nathan Hauritz you would hope the Aussie quicks get rid of him before he's 50 N.O. facing Haurry's first test spell since his return from a foot injury. Sehwag has destroyed far better off-spinners than Nathan Hauritz in the past few years. Mohali is where it all began for the Australian off-spinner. Despite a solid match he didn't play another test for over 4 years. Who knows, if Sehwag has his way it could be where it all ends for our hero Haurry.
Mitchell Johnson has been talking to the media about bowling short to him early. Deja vu if you ask me. I remember the exact same talk before the 2009 Ashes from the same bowler about the English line-up. A player as good as Sehwag knows how to play the short ball, and has played it well on more troublesome pitches than Mohali will be. Sehwag shelved the pull and hook a few years back so although the short ball may be a sanctuary for the Australian attack if Sehwag gets up and going, I'm not sure if it will be a successful wicket ball. Perhaps though, it will work as a pressure builder for a man who does not like to score slowly, coupled with the traditional notion of the bouncer putting the batsman on the back foot and thus confusing his footwork (not that Sehwag actually moves his feet). OK, I know I said I wasn't going to make predictions but here's one for all you readers (all 3 of you)- few short balls and then, stuck at the crease, an airy jab at a Mitchell Johnson angler snaffled at 3rd slip. GOT HIM!!!
2) Ricky Ponting v the short ball-
I don't have to go in to detail about Ponting's struggles with the short ball the past few series, although I must say it really is alarming that the (arguably) best player of the short ball in our era is now undoubtedly vulnerable against it. One more fact that a lot of you (again, "a lot" in this sense = 2 out of the 3 reading) might not have realized, as for some reason the media surprisingly didn't focus on at the time, is that Ponting was dismissed for 9 pulling a short ball bowled by one "Unadkat" in the tour match last week. In Ricky's defence, looking at Watson and Ricky's strike rates for the start of their respective innings, neither was looking to block out a draw, but the fact Ricky fell to another short bowl bowled by an unknown B-team Indian seamer is certainly concerning. There are two factors in this series that Ponting has going for him. Firstly, the Indian pitches aren't traditionally bouncy and might give Ponting more time to control the pull/hook, although in saying this the slowness of the pitches might create a timing gap for Ponting given the speed of bounce he's used to in his beloved Australian pitches. Secondly, the Indian pace attack is far from potent, especially in the aggressive sense of bowling short. The exception is of course Zaheer, but given he is just returning from injury, may not be as dangerous as usual. The Australian camp is claiming the Mohali pitch, two days out from Day 1 still had a tinge of green due to some heavy rain in the past week, which may work in the Aussie's favour (in that it will counter-act the dangerous Indian spin attack as well as aiding the stronger Australian seamers), but a dead pitch may not be a bad way for Ponting to rediscover his form against the short ball (ASHES ALERT). Either way, there will be great interest surrounding Ponting, and particularly how he plays the bouncer in the 2 tests, and whether he comes out on top may well be the difference between a massive Australian 1st innings and another Australian batting collapse.
3) Ponting v Harbhajan (and to a lesser extent the other 10 Indian spin bowlers in the XI)-
Unlike Sachin, Ponting has one or two particular flaws in his game that are well known in the cricketing world. One of these is the troubles he has had against quality off-spin. India, in Harbhajan has one of the three, the others being Dan Vetorri and Graeme Swann, exceptional off-spinners going around test cricket at this moment (arguably Shakib is the 4th). Now everyone talks about how Ricky attacks the ball with hard hands at the beginning of his innings, and uses this as a reason why he nicks behind off seamers so often early in his innings. It is generally agreed that once he hits 20 or 30 he begins to relax and play with softer hands, letting the ball come to him. I think it is also these hard hands which gets him in to trouble against the off-spinners. Perhaps as a result of reading the length wrong, he seems to really attack the off-spinners length ball early in his innings, resulting in his hands and bat being too far in front of his pads, which subsequently results in poor balance. This then leaves him vulnerable to being bowled through the gate or some kind of bat-pad dismissal in short, a dismissal which Harbhajan loves. Ricky's only century in India was last tour in the 1st test when Hayden was (wrongly) given out in the 1st over. Ricky came in, had time to get himself in against the quicks and then was more relaxed once Harbhajan was bought on later in the session.
Now that this series has rolled around, we have an out-of-form Ricky playing an out-of-form Harbhajan. Two great players under siege. Perhaps the thought of having another go at each other could bring the best out of one or both of them. Harbhajan loves playing Australia, loves bowling in India, and loves getting Ricky out. Ricky is out of form, has a poor record in India and has the self-proclaimed biggest 6-8 months of his life coming up.
Ricky's troubles against the short ball began against Kemar Roach at the WACA where he was hit on the left elbow trying to defend a 150 km/h riser. After receiving some brief treatment he stayed on and faced the rest of Roach's blistering spell, continuing to pull and hook him for uncontrolled boundaries. Only after his captain pulled Roach from the attack did Ricky trudge off the ground retired hurt. In the second innings he batted at 9 and could visibly barely hold the bat. It was only then people realised how bad his injury was and how determined he was not to show it. This is a man who thrives on challenge, thrives on adversity and thrives on criticism. After what must be the hardest 12 month period of his career, the Australian captain knows he has to perform this series against Harbhajan and against the short ball.
I sense a challenge. And based on the past, this means a revival.
4) Nathan Hauritz v the Indian middle order-
Since winning the public backing of Ponting and the Australian selectors a couple years ago, Hauritz has undoubtedly surprised. He is a man constantly under criticism at the best of times, and ridiculed at the worst. After the 3 match test series against Australia last summer Chris Gayle had a stab at Hauritz by claiming that facing the off-spinner felt like he was facing himself. For those who aren't familiar with Gayle's bowling style, whilst labelled 'off spin', it is really more like darty slow-medium bowling off a 2 step run up.
Nathan will have to do a lot of bowling this series based on the safe assumption that Johnson/Hilfenhaus/Bollinger aren't going to run through the Indian top and middle orders. If he fares poorly or even averagely Australia will seriously struggle to salvage anything more than a draw from the 2 match series. He will have to be picking up at least 1-2 key scalps (I'm talking Tendulkars and Laxmans who he's coincidentally dismissed previously at this ground) each innings and hopefully dismiss India's typically stubborn tail (I'm looking at you Harbhajan) cheaply as well. The quicks can only realistically (and even optimistically) be expected to take a couple top order wickets with the new ball and then chip in in their work-man-like fashion through out what will probably be a long innings. That's why so much rests on Hauritz. If he can't find a way through the defences of "The Wall" and his 50+ averaging buddies this series can only end in a draw or an Indian win.
One thing Nathan has going for him is that Zaheer, Johnson and Bollinger (assuming he plays) are all left handers and will thus create rough in their follow-through, conveniently placed outside the right-handers off-stump. This will give Hauritz something to bowl in to, making the batsman's life much more difficult as the ball will generally act less predictably if it is pitched in the rough. The bad news is, Harbhajan will have the same patches of rough to bowl in to as well. Shotgun winning the toss!
There have been whispers of an alleged doosra Haurry has been working on, and I'm almost certain I saw him bowl one that went the other way in a one-dayer earlier this year, but as far as this series goes, expect Nathan to stick with his regular weapons of that outside off-stump line as well as clever changes of pace, mixed the odd quicker straight one. It may not be enough against a top 7 with a combined total of a ludicrous 128 test centuries (keep in mind their number 6 has only played a couple tests).
5) The spear-head factor-
India and Australia share a similarity in they both have spearheads who at their best are devastating, but have disappointed far too often over the past couple years. In Zaheer and Johnson, we have two left arm quicks capable of inducing massive batting collapses, but also far too capable of proving impotent, or even unacceptably expensive. Compare this to a Dale Steyn or James Anderson who always seem to be reliable with the new ball to at least make the batsmen's life uncomfortable for the first 45 minutes of an innings.
These Indian pitches are not ones you can let a team reach 0-100 on and have any realistic chance of pulling the game back. New-ball wickets are essential, especially given the strength of each teams opening pair (I believe the two strongest going around test cricket right now). With the exception of Watson, the other three can bat all day, and with the strike-rates of Sehwag and Watson, it is essential that Zaheer and Mitch are consistent in their first spells. As has become the theme in this post- if they fail to do this expect enormous innings totals, and therefore, inevitable draws.
Zaheer is just coming back from injury and Mitch off a relatively long rest period. Zaheer will be understandably rust while Johnson has become notorious for bowling poorly after lay-offs. Both of them will need to find form quickly if their teams are to take 20 wickets.
6) The part-time spinners vs the opposition batsmen-
Two giant batting line-ups facing two solid-at-best bowling line ups on what will likely be a flat pitch and given the recent rain in Mohali, one that probably won't crack up and become the spinners paradise on days 4 and 5 we are used to. A "stolen wicket" (as Simon Katich himself described the wickets he gets) or two from one of the part-timers (Sehwag, North, Tendulkar, Katich etc) could be the difference in this match/series. Batsmen always sense a chance to score quickly against part-timers, which invariably leads to riskier play. Imagine a scenario where Hussey, well-set on 30 or 40 plays a silly shot against Sehwag, exposing the unproven Australian lower-middle order, or Laxman does something similar against North, exposing the rookie Raina and his lower order companions. It isn't the likeliest of things to happen, but it could prove the difference in a contest in which the teams will take any wicket they can get.
